Amid an unprecedented surge in defense spending, Poland faces a critical strategic choice: will the resources allocated to modernizing its Armed Forces serve as a catalyst for rebuilding national industrial capabilities, or will they result primarily in the outflow of technology and capital abroad?
In response to this challenge, the Alioth Foundation, in partnership with Col. (Ret.) Krystian Zięć, has published a report titled “Now or Never”—a comprehensive analysis of the prospects for developing Poland’s aerospace industry in the context of ongoing and future defense investments.
The report provides a detailed assessment of the structural challenges facing the Polish Air Force and identifies a set of pivotal decisions that will shape the future of the domestic aerospace sector. The authors argue that without the establishment of local manufacturing and sustainment capacities, Poland risks long-term technological dependency and escalating operational costs. Conversely, well-structured procurement programs can serve as a powerful driver for industrial revitalization and technological sovereignty.
Key recommendations outlined in the report include:
- establishing domestic production capabilities for light combat aircraft (e.g., M-346F Block 20),
- securing the participation of Polish companies in the full lifecycle support and modernization of defense platforms,
- enhancing national industrial competencies through strategic partnerships with international suppliers,
- increasing investment in R&D and expanding the development of dual-use technologies.
This report is not only a contribution to the national debate on the future of the Polish Armed Forces, but also a call for long-term strategic planning in the development of a sovereign, innovation-driven defense industrial base.
Download the report: Now or Never. Prospects for the Development of the Polish Aviation Industry in Light of the State’s Current Defense Expenditures
